Estimation

Scoping, measuring and projecting.

Scoping

  • Inceptions are mostly about the why

  • Try to cut similar sized chunks of work

  • Alternatively, estimate t-shirt sizes: S/M/L or 1, 2, 3

  • PM, customer, QA should estimate as a sanity check ONLY

  • Designers’ estimates can be included with devs’ estimates

  • Try to estimate on a weekly basis... anything finer grained than that is likely self-delusion

  • Fill up 3 weeks and take an average, and then check: does it feel right?

Measurement

  • Yesterday’s weather is usually very accurate

  • If you don't have yesterday's weather, default to 2 points or M

  • Give yourself a wider window (2 or 3 weeks) to avoid sharp spikes at Holi

  • Prefer one week iterations as a basic skeleton

  • Prefer the simplest estimation possible

  • Never change estimation approach mid-project

  • DO NOT compensate for irregularities – sick leave and holidays are real

  • Consider making an exception for serious illness, weddings, sabbaticals and unexpected events

Projection

  • Take what was measured, mark it against the scope, project into the future

  • Do not adjust, do not compensate, do not pad work/estimates

  • Pad the end (of a release, of a project) for inevitable changes

  • Be honest with everyone about what you see

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